Hanson may hold balance of power

Veteran Ipswich City councillor and Labor Party figure Paul Tully has tipped the closest Queensland election in 150 years, with Premier Anna Bligh to hang on despite a strong mood for change.

Cr Tully has had strong success predicting the outcomes of Commonwealth, State and Local Government elections since 1969.

He won the glug.com.au award for the only pundit to get the 2006 state election result 100 per cent right.

He predicted the Whitlam win of 1972, the Whitlam loss of 1975, Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen's rout of the Liberals in 1983, Labor leader Peter Beattie's haul of extra seats at the 2001 election.

Today he reveals his predictions for the 2009 state election:

1. Hanson to add colour to Parliament

"Pauline Hanson will probably win the seat of Beaudesert. Australians love colourful characters - whether they are Russ Hinze, Bob Hawke or Pauline Hanson.

"Love her or hate her, Pauline has re-entered Redneck Territory between the towns of Boonah and Beaudesert and has carefully selected this seat to stand in, with the sitting National member retiring and no obvious successor except the the LNP's Aidon McLindon who has run a very average campaign, according to all reports.

"The publication of alleged nude pictures of Pauline Hanson won't have affected her chances in a seat like Beaudesert where the sexual proclivities of some of the farm boys will now guarantee a big vote for the former One Nation Leader."

2. Knife-edge result

"I am predicting possibly the closest election in Queensland history since 1859 - with a bare working majority for the winner of only one, three or five seats - a far cry from the 63 seats out of 89 which Peter Beattie gained in 2006 but since slightly eroded by the loss of Indooroopilly to the Greens after the defection of Ronan Lee.

"I am also predicting that the Government elected on Saturday could well be a minority government, reliant for its composition and/or support on one or more of the Independents.

"It is possible that Pauline Hanson could hold the balance of power in the new Parliament either in her own right or with one or more of her fellow travellers. Three years of political turmoil in Queensland would be the inevitable result."

3. LNP faces steep battle

"The chances of a majority government by the LNP in its own right are close to nil.

"This may account for a small but statistically-significant late swing back to Anna Bligh and the ALP which I have detected in the past 36 hours - with voters not prepared to have Queensland governed by a hotch-potch of Independents pushing their own agendas, as we have seen in the Australian Senate, where Independent Senators lack a proper perspective as to what is right and appropriate for their constituents."

4. Independents' day

"The four Independents in the State Parliament - Peter Wellington (Nicklin), Chris Foley (Maryborough), Liz Cunningham (Gladstone) and Dorothy Pratt (Nanango) will all hold their seats, although John Bjelke-Petersen may give Dorothy Pratt a real run for her money this time.

"The number of Independents may increase to five if Pauline Hanson is elected and possibly even six, if the sitting National Member Stuart Copeland whose seat of Cunningham has been abolished and who is challenging his sitting National colleague for the new seat of Condamine, as an Independent.

"Rosa Lee Long (One Nation) whose seat has been abolished and who is now contesting the newly-created seat of Dalrymple is not without hope although an LNP victory in that seat is more likely.

"With up to 7 Independents being successful on Saturday, the chances of a minority Government in Queensland have increased significantly."

5. Labor defector to lose seat

"By 7.30pm on Saturday night, Ronan Lee will no longer be the Member for Indooroopilly. He will receive a swing against him of up to 30%.

"To win, he would have to become the first Green MP to be elected by the people to any lower House of Parliament in mainland Australia.

"I lived in Indooroopilly for 23 years. I went to the Holy Family School at Indooroopilly. I was even an Altar Boy at Indooroopilly and I continue to know the area like the back of my hand.

"Indooroopilly wasn't a Green seat in the 1950s and 60s and unfortunately for the Labor turncoat, it won't be a Green seat after Saturday night."

6. Mood for change

"There is clearly a mood for some change around Queensland. This state of affairs is being reported to my office from all parts of the State, from areas such as Brisbane North, Redlands, Gold Coast, Coastal Queensland, Townsville, Cairns and seats west of the Great Dividing Range where sitting members are likely to have significant swings against them.

"Any Government which has been in office for 11 years will always face this same difficulty as the 'time for a change' movement unfolds.

"I am predicting that one, and possibly two, ministers will lose their parliamentary seats. Although Lawrence Springborg comes across as a political novice much of the time, people will not be voting for him directly and any anger (or support) will be directed at local candidates."

What is "Psephology"?

Cr Paul Tully is a psephologist. Psephology is defined in the Macquarie Dictionary as "the study of elections by analysing their results, trends etc". It comes from the Greek word PSEPHOS which means a pebble (used in ancient Athens for voting) and LOGY.

A psephologist is one who practices psephology.

The art of predicting the outcome of elections is based on scientific polling, a detailed seat-by-seat analysis of past voting and possible future trends based on changing demographics, preference deals in individual seats, last-minute voting intention changes and a little intuition.

It must always be an unbiased judgment based on a factual analysis of the likely outcome of an election rather than the psephologist's own personal political bias.

brisbanetimes.com.au