Prices for Australia's biggest crops are rising from already elevated levels amid fears the Russian invasion of Ukraine will disrupt global food supplies.
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Rabobank agricultural analyst Dennis Voznesenski said a full-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine could see exports out of the region grind to a halt, prompting further price increases in food products containing wheat, canola and barley.
The grains represent three of Australia's major crops and soft commodity exports. The conflict is also expected to have an impact on sorghum markets.
Russia and Ukraine account for about one-third of grains and oil seeds traded globally, which means any disruption will have a knock-on impact on global food markets.
"Food prices had already started increasing even before the world lost access to Black Sea's grains and oilseeds, and this will only add upward pressure on food prices around the world," Mr Voznesenski told AAP.
Global wheat prices have recorded price rises of around 18 per cent since the beginning of the week, while wheat prices are up 39 per cent compared to this time last year.
While the humanitarian impact of the invasion is still unfolding, global markets tracking everything from oil to stocks and currencies have traded wildly in recent days as investors weigh up the fallout of conflict in such a commodity-rich region.
While local grain prices have been increasing, the rises have been tempered by a large domestic supply, Australia's export constraints and a strong seasonal outlook.
Mr Voznesenski said global wheat prices could increase another five to ten per cent due to the conflict.
"If Black Sea wheat cannot leave Black Sea ports by July - whether due to full-scale conflict or sanctions on Russian wheat exports - that's when it's entering the next harvest window for the Black Sea, and we could see a substantial escalation of prices."
Mr Voznesenski said any sanctions on Russian wheat exports would cause long-term changes to the global wheat trade.
Victorian grain farmer Brett Hosking said the conflict was already impacting Australia's grain markets, but he said the long term impact was unclear.
"It's really hard to say what the impact will be for any grain at the moment, other than that short term volatility," said Mr Hosking, who chairs the GrainGrowers industry body.
"We know there will be some impacts because we know there's already been infrastructure damage in Ukraine, and sanctions applied to Russia."
He said while Australian growers have their own supply chain challenges, they're keen to service any gaps in the market.
"It's actually a real wake-up call for our Australian government to make sure we have the fastest, most efficient and effective supply chains, so in events like this we are able to step in where needed," Mr Hosking said.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Friday he was concerned by media reports that China had eased wheat trade restrictions with Russia, describing it as "unacceptable".
"This is not a time to be easing trade restrictions with Russia. We should all be doing the exact opposite," Mr Morrison said.
Australian Associated Press
